541 NW Churchman

Willamina, OR 97396

$224,942C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,322 sqft · Built 1897 · SingleFamily · Active · 588 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,625/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax + insurance: −$202
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $-98/mo
• Annual: $-1,172/yr
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.86%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $62,984

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $162k (27.8% below list).
• It's been on market 588 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $162k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#247 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Willamina SD 30J (rural): math 13% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #177 of 183 in OR (top 97%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1897 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 282 units permitted in Yamhill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Yamhill County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $110k; list at $225k implies a 104% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.1% in Willamina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 588 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1897 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.