12700 Antigua Dr

Noblesville, IN 46060

$315,000D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,152 sqft · Built 2013 · SingleFamily · Pending · 4 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,406/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$395
• HOA: −$30
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-175/mo
• Annual: $-2,105/yr
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.39%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $284k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (23.6% below list).
• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $241k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#3 in IN, #446 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: commute F.
• Hamilton Southeastern Schools (suburban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 301 in IN (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Deer Creek Elementary (607 students, 27% FRL); Hamilton Southeastern Hs (math 66% / reading 85%, grade A-, #7 of 369 statewide, top 2%, 3,450 students, 15% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 76% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Hamilton Southeastern Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 456 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,661 units permitted in Hamilton County in 2024 (1,528 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hamilton County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Noblesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.