3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,167 sqft ·
Built 2005
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 194 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,444/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$729
Tax + insurance
−$120
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$303
Net cashflow
$292/mo
Annual
$3,503/yr
Cap rate
8.81%
Cash-on-cash
9.00%
DSCR
1.40
1% rule
1.04%
Cash to close
$38,920
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $139k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $139k).
It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($122k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $122k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $961 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#216 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, amenities F.
Madison County (urban): math 10% / reading 17% proficiency, ranked #131 of 139 in TN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Isaac Lane Technology Magnet Elementary (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #926 of 952 statewide, top 100%, 467 students, 0% FRL); Liberty Technology Magnet High School (math 2% / reading 13%, grade F, #290 of 332 statewide, top 87%, 549 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 68% district-wide (68 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 253 active listings in the ZIP; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 247 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Madison County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 11% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.5% in Jackson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NT311T672JTCG7
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29