9440 Hollow Rd

Middletown, MD 21769

$150,000B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 927 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Pending · 1 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,115/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$311
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $573/mo
• Annual: $6,880/yr
• Cap rate: 11.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.97%
• DSCR: 1.80
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $573 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#138 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Frederick County Public Schools (other): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #4 of 24 in MD (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Myersville Elementary (math 32% / reading 37%, grade F, #146 of 860 statewide, top 18%, 409 students, 14% FRL); Middletown Middle (math 19% / reading 51%, grade F, #47 of 225 statewide, top 21%, 799 students, 17% FRL); Middletown High (math 74% / reading 83%, grade A-, #20 of 222 statewide, top 9%, 1,097 students, 17% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 49% at this address vs 35% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Frederick County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 48 active listings in the ZIP; 1,562 units permitted in Frederick County in 2024 (374 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Frederick County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.1% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.