6554 Esmont Rd

Esmont, VA 22946

$278,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Built 1969 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,458
• Tax + insurance: −$262
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-140/mo
• Annual: $-1,680/yr
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.16%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $77,840

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $278k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-140 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (28.1% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $200k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#488 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Scottsville Elementary (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C+, #597 of 1,108 statewide, top 57%, 227 students, 59% FRL); Leslie H. Walton Middle (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #38 of 342 statewide, top 11%, 339 students, 38% FRL); Monticello High (math 49% / reading 81%, grade B, #210 of 319 statewide, top 66%, 1,229 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 23% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 1 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $240k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.