8901 S Starlight Ln

Knik-Fairview, AK 99623

$495,000B-

0 bd · 8.0 ba · 2,864 sqft · Built 2007 · MultiFamily · Active · 233 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $7,542/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,596
• Tax + insurance: −$508
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,584
• Net cashflow: $2,854/mo
• Annual: $34,251/yr
• Cap rate: 13.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.71%
• DSCR: 2.10
• 1% rule: 1.52%
• Cash to close: $138,600

Investor read

• This is a 4 × 3-bed/2.0-bath units multifamily listed at $495k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $3k ($34k/yr) — positive. Per door: $714/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($8k rent vs $495k).
• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($436k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $436k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $139k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 3.3% in Knik-Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $7,542/mo this rent would consume 102% of the median local household income ($89k/yr) (locally 285% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.