280 N E L Hawk St

Puxico, MO 63960

$109,900C

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,788 sqft · Built 1920 · Other · Active · 180 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $961/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax + insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $79/mo
• Annual: $946/yr
• Cap rate: 7.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.07%
• DSCR: 1.14
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $30,772

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $110k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $79 ($946/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $96k (12.5% below list).
• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $96k (12.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($760 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#253 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D, employment D.
• Puxico R-VIII (rural): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #111 of 324 in MO (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Stoddard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stoddard County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.6% in Puxico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.