5207 Blue Sky Dr

Cetronia, PA 18069

$499,900F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,386 sqft · Built 2006 · Townhouse · Pending · 6 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,717/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,622
• Tax + insurance: −$736
• HOA: −$53
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-1,264/mo
• Annual: $-15,169/yr
• Cap rate: 3.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.84%
• DSCR: 0.52
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $139,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $500k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (44.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (45.6% below list).
• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $272k (45.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 93/100 on livability (#6 in PA, #18 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+.
• Parkland SD (suburban): math 59% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #40 of 539 in PA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Kernsville Sch (math 72% / reading 77%, grade A, #89 of 1,518 statewide, top 7%, 447 students, 24% FRL); Orefield Ms (math 33% / reading 60%, grade D+, #172 of 512 statewide, top 35%, 917 students, 36% FRL); Parkland Hs (math 81% / reading 24%, grade C-, #107 of 437 statewide, top 25%, 3,220 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 765 units permitted in Lehigh County in 2024 (286 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lehigh County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $290k; list at $500k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.