3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,442 sqft ·
Built 2003
· Manufactured
· Active
· 121 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,474/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$865
Tax + insurance
−$185
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$310
Net cashflow
$115/mo
Annual
$1,377/yr
Cap rate
7.13%
Cash-on-cash
2.98%
DSCR
1.13
1% rule
0.89%
Cash to close
$46,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $115 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (10.7% below list).
It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#283 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, crime F, commute F.
Corsicana ISD (town): math 39% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #471 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Jose Antonio Navarro El (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #3,221 of 4,322 statewide, top 75%, 621 students, 90% FRL); Corsicana Middle (math 35% / reading 43%, grade F, #690 of 1,662 statewide, top 42%, 928 students, 76% FRL); Corsicana H S (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 1,805 students, 73% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.5%/yr); 274 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 522 units permitted in Navarro County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Navarro County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 4.4% in Corsicana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NV9JN903BPW57Q
· Data 16 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29