53 Shore Rd

Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11960

$1,999,000A

4 bd · 4.0 ba · 4,400 sqft · Built 1929 · SingleFamily · Pending · 239 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $37,095/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,483
• Tax + insurance: −$3,758
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$7,790
• Net cashflow: $15,064/mo
• Annual: $180,766/yr
• Cap rate: 15.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.21%
• DSCR: 2.48
• 1% rule: 1.86%
• Cash to close: $559,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $2.00M. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15k ($181k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($37k rent vs $2.00M).
• It's been on market 239 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.76M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.76M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $170k of equity ($14k loan paydown + $156k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade A — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #389 of 755 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 40 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $396k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (7.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $560k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$272k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 7.2% in Remsenburg-Speonk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 239 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.