4 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,500 sqft ·
Built —
· Other
· Pending
· 147 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,714/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$167
Tax + insurance
−$53
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$360
Net cashflow
$1,133/mo
Annual
$13,599/yr
Cap rate
48.92%
Cash-on-cash
152.26%
DSCR
7.77
1% rule
5.37%
Cash to close
$8,932
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $32k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $32k).
It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($28k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $28k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $221 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $957 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#832 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
Kankakee SD 111 (urban): math 6% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #584 of 620 in IL (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 145 units permitted in Kankakee County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
Kankakee County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 48.9% vs local median 5.8% in Kankakee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NVEHMHDQBEJC8B
· Data 6 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29