3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,280 sqft ·
Built 2004
· Manufactured
· Pending
· 5 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,494/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$918
Tax + insurance
−$180
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$314
Net cashflow
$83/mo
Annual
$997/yr
Cap rate
6.86%
Cash-on-cash
2.03%
DSCR
1.09
1% rule
0.85%
Cash to close
$49,000
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $83 ($997/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (14.6% below list).
Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $149k (14.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
Lenoir County Public Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #147 of 178 in NC (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Contentnea-Savannah School (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #959 of 1,410 statewide, top 68%, 859 students, 100% FRL); North Lenoir High (math 52% / reading 36%, grade F, #367 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 975 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 65% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 148 units permitted in Lenoir County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Lenoir County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
5 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $135k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NVGY794EEF91ZN
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29