1646 Cedgap Rd

Louisa, KY 41230

$27,700B+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · Built 1994 · Other · Active · 31 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $872/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$145
• Tax + insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$183
• Net cashflow: $418/mo
• Annual: $5,015/yr
• Cap rate: 27.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.94%
• DSCR: 4.33
• 1% rule: 3.15%
• Cash to close: $7,756

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $28k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($872 rent vs $28k).
• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($27k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $27k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($192 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (7.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#381 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lawrence County (town): math 23% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #95 of 165 in KY (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Louisa East Elementary School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #329 of 676 statewide, top 49%, 491 students, 62% FRL); Louisa Middle School (math 22% / reading 43%, grade F, #116 of 217 statewide, top 55%, 457 students, 67% FRL); Lawrence County High School (math 32% / reading 47%, grade F, #40 of 254 statewide, top 19%, 738 students, 63% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP.
• Lawrence County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (7.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 27.3% vs local median 4.0% in Louisa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.