3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,309 sqft ·
Built 2007
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 20 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,500/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,232
Tax + insurance
−$264
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$315
Net cashflow
$-312/mo
Annual
$-3,742/yr
Cap rate
4.70%
Cash-on-cash
-5.69%
DSCR
0.75
1% rule
0.64%
Cash to close
$65,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-312 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (23.4% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (36.2% below list).
It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $150k (36.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#234 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Gray'S Creek Middle (math 33% / reading 48%, grade F, #215 of 475 statewide, top 46%, 1,126 students, 50% FRL); Gray'S Creek High (math 61% / reading 58%, grade C+, #216 of 535 statewide, top 43%, 1,395 students, 44% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 36% district-wide (+14 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Cumberland County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $149k; list at $235k implies a 58% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NVYF9523Q8FE8V
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29