6996 Beth Bath Pike

Bethlehem, PA 18014

$449,900F

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,616 sqft · Built 1963 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,337/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax + insurance: −$511
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-1,024/mo
• Annual: $-12,289/yr
• Cap rate: 3.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.76%
• DSCR: 0.57
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $125,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (40.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (48.1% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $234k (48.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#138 in PA, #1,122 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Northampton Area SD (suburban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #153 of 539 in PA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: George Wolf El Sch (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #815 of 1,518 statewide, top 56%, 447 students, 50% FRL); Northampton Area Ms (math 24% / reading 46%, grade F, #322 of 512 statewide, top 64%, 1,256 students, 42% FRL); Northampton Area Hs (math 60% / reading 24%, grade F, #230 of 437 statewide, top 53%, 1,862 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 22% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 567 units permitted in Northampton County in 2024 (151 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 9 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 23% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.