2300 E Valley Pkwy #109

Escondido, CA 92027

$160,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 900 sqft · Built 1969 · Manufactured · Pending · 46 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,635/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$553
• Net cashflow: $976/mo
• Annual: $11,711/yr
• Cap rate: 13.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.14%
• DSCR: 2.16
• 1% rule: 1.65%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $976 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#238 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime D+.
• Escondido Union High (suburban): math 19% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #247 of 517 in CA (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 135 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 8 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $160k implies a 129% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 13.6% vs local median 2.4% in Escondido — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.