20494 Avery Rd

Wheatland, MO 65355

$194,999D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,681 sqft · Built 1990 · Other · Active · 238 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,383/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax + insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $-57/mo
• Annual: $-685/yr
• Cap rate: 5.94%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.25%
• DSCR: 0.94
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $54,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $195k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-57 ($-685/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (5.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (29.1% below list).
• It's been on market 238 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#810 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Wheatland R-II (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #367 of 535 in MO (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 274 active listings in the ZIP.
• Hickory County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.3% in Wheatland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 238 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.