Pike (Sawyier) Plan

Georgetown, KY 40324

$54,995D+

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 546 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 323 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,074/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax + insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$500
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-32/mo
• Annual: $-379/yr
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.46%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 1.95%
• Cash to close: $15,399

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-379/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $50k (8.3% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• It's been on market 323 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#75 in KY, #2,338 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Scott County (town): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #31 of 165 in KY (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Western Elementary School (math 48% / reading 49%, grade D, #110 of 676 statewide, top 17%, 624 students, 34% FRL); Scott County Middle School (math 38% / reading 53%, grade D+, #32 of 217 statewide, top 15%, 864 students, 35% FRL); Scott County High School (math 34% / reading 37%, grade F, #73 of 254 statewide, top 28%, 1,197 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 47% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 437 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 546 units permitted in Scott County in 2024 (98 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Scott County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.5% in Georgetown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 323 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.