1301 W 4th St

Petersburg, TX 79250

$80,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 2021 · SingleFamily · Active · 104 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,011/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$212
• Net cashflow: $313/mo
• Annual: $3,762/yr
• Cap rate: 10.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.79%
• DSCR: 1.75
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $302 of equity ($553 loan paydown + $-251 appreciation (-0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#637 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Petersburg ISD (rural): math 55% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #387 of 1,141 in TX (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 13 units permitted in Hale County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hale County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.