38513 Wellington Dr

Mount Clemens, MI 48036

$105,900D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1990 · Condo · Pending · 27 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,266/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$555
• Tax + insurance: −$176
• HOA: −$280
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$266
• Net cashflow: $-12/mo
• Annual: $-141/yr
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.47%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 1.20%
• Cash to close: $29,652

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $106k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-141/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $104k (1.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $106k).
• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $104k (1.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $732 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#120 in MI, #2,918 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, amenities D+.
• Mount Clemens Community School District (suburban): math 4% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #532 of 540 in MI (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 117 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 47% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 14 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $42k; list at $106k implies a 152% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Mount Clemens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen appliances — The kitchen appears outdated and lacks modern appliances.
• Minor: bathroom fixtures — Standard fixtures but show signs of wear.
• Moderate: flooring — The flooring in the common areas looks worn and may need replacement or refinishing.
• Minor: interior paint — The interior walls show some discoloration and wear, which can be addressed with a fresh coat of paint.