2475 Holton Rd

Muskegon, MI 49445

$269,900C-

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,584 sqft · Built 1975 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,975/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$257
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $-112/mo
• Annual: $-1,346/yr
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.78%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-112 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (26.8% below list).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $198k (26.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#92 in MI, #2,096 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, employment F.
• Reeths-Puffer Schools (suburban): math 28% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #254 of 540 in MI (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 142 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 438 units permitted in Muskegon County in 2024 (115 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Muskegon County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 10 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $270k implies a 218% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 4.6% in Muskegon — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.