100 Madison Dr

Lake Cherokee, TX 75603

$319,000D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,080 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,393/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax + insurance: −$533
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$293
• Net cashflow: $-1,105/mo
• Annual: $-13,259/yr
• Cap rate: 2.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.84%
• DSCR: 0.34
• 1% rule: 0.44%
• Cash to close: $89,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $124k (61.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (56.3% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (61.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $34k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $32k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#650 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Longview ISD (urban): math 49% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #244 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ned E Williams El (math 41% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 377 students, 93% FRL, charter) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 66% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 193 units permitted in Gregg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$55k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 61% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.