4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,893 sqft ·
Built 1965
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 51 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,049/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,180
Tax + insurance
−$311
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$430
Net cashflow
$127/mo
Annual
$1,527/yr
Cap rate
6.97%
Cash-on-cash
2.42%
DSCR
1.11
1% rule
0.91%
Cash to close
$63,000
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (8.9% below list).
It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $205k (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#484 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Brentwood Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,513 of 2,144 statewide, top 73%, 407 students, 86% FRL); Washington Senior High School (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #411 of 667 statewide, top 62%, 1,733 students, 51% FRL).
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 240 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $145k; list at $225k implies a 55% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 5→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NXY9S37M9JG691
· Data 14 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29