1 bd · 1.0 ba ·
900 sqft ·
Built 1965
· Condo
· Active
· 213 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$961/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$256
Tax + insurance
−$146
HOA
−$260
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$202
Net cashflow
$97/mo
Annual
$1,166/yr
Cap rate
8.68%
Cash-on-cash
8.51%
DSCR
1.38
1% rule
1.97%
Cash to close
$13,692
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $49k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $97 ($1k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($961 rent vs $49k).
It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($43k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $43k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $338 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 62/100 on livability (#832 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, employment D-.
Kankakee SD 111 (urban): math 6% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #584 of 620 in IL (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: John Kennedy Middle Grade School (math 7% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,362 of 2,056 statewide, top 66%, 543 students, 0% FRL); Kankakee Junior High School (math 4% / reading 15%, grade F, #597 of 665 statewide, top 91%, 560 students, 0% FRL); Kankakee High School (math 6% / reading 10%, grade F, #587 of 693 statewide, top 85%, 1,513 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 78% district-wide (78 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; HOA is 27% of rent.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 115 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 80% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 145 units permitted in Kankakee County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
Kankakee County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
3 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.4% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 5.6% in Kankakee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
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