9768 State Route 812

Croghan, NY 13327

$289,999B

25 bd · None ba · 6,069 sqft · Built 1912 · MultiFamily · Active · 376 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,220/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$287
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,096
• Net cashflow: $2,316/mo
• Annual: $27,792/yr
• Cap rate: 15.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.23%
• DSCR: 2.52
• 1% rule: 1.80%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 1×3bd/1ba + 1×2bd/1ba + 3×1bd/1ba units multifamily listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($28k/yr) — positive. Per door: $463/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $290k).
• It's been on market 376 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $255k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#975 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, crime F.
• Beaver River Central School District (rural): math 38% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #458 of 590 in NY (top 78%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: built in 1912 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Lewis County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lewis County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $290k implies a 176% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 376 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1912 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?