4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,388 sqft ·
Built 2026
· Land
· Pending
· 16 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,043/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,384
Tax + insurance
−$199
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$429
Net cashflow
$31/mo
Annual
$371/yr
Cap rate
6.43%
Cash-on-cash
0.50%
DSCR
1.02
1% rule
0.77%
Cash to close
$73,920
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $264k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $31 ($371/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (22.6% below list).
It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $204k (22.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Joseph J Rhoads Learning Center (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 101 students, 94% FRL); Billy Earl Dade Middle (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,407 of 1,662 statewide, top 86%, 636 students, 100% FRL); Lincoln Humanities/Communications Magnet High Sch (math 8% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,529 of 1,632 statewide, top 94%, 700 students, 92% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dallas ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 247 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
7 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (0.8% appreciation + 7.2% rent growth), your $74k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-NY9BEB18PYSF7D
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29