8112 Poinciana Blvd #1605

Hunters Creek, FL 32821

$172,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,409 sqft · Built 2005 · Condo · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,428/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$902
• Tax + insurance: −$322
• HOA: −$938
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$510
• Net cashflow: $-244/mo
• Annual: $-2,926/yr
• Cap rate: 4.59%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.08%
• DSCR: 0.73
• 1% rule: 1.41%
• Cash to close: $48,160

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $172k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-244 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (25.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $172k).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $129k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $510 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#222 in FL, #3,277 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: commute D, amenities F.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Tangelo Park Elementary (math 17% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,121 of 2,144 statewide, top 99%, 457 students, 83% FRL); Freedom Middle (math 43% / reading 43%, grade D-, #331 of 571 statewide, top 59%, 1,159 students, 44% FRL); Freedom High (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #367 of 667 statewide, top 57%, 2,623 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.2%/yr); 281 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 3.0% in Hunters Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?