8162 Josephine Cir

El Paso, TX 79907

$175,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 1946 · SingleFamily · Active · 406 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,719/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$334
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $106/mo
• Annual: $1,277/yr
• Cap rate: 7.02%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.61%
• DSCR: 1.12
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $106 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $172k (1.8% below list).
• It's been on market 406 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#23 in TX, #1,375 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+.
• Ysleta ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #626 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.8%/yr); 103 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $1,719/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($42k/yr) (locally 1390% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 406 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.