3007 Horse Shoe Ct

Orlando, FL 32822

$136,900D+

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,021 sqft · Built 2025 · Manufactured · Active · 269 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,286/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$718
• Tax + insurance: −$228
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $70/mo
• Annual: $843/yr
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.20%
• DSCR: 1.10
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $38,332

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $137k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($843/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (6.0% below list).
• It's been on market 269 days — a 12% lower offer ($120k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $120k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $946 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ventura Elementary (math 26% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,882 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 596 students, 66% FRL); Liberty Middle (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #399 of 571 statewide, top 71%, 915 students, 66% FRL); Colonial High (math 16% / reading 33%, grade F, #505 of 667 statewide, top 79%, 3,442 students, 62% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 30% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Orange average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 379 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 269 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.