1 bd · None ba ·
600 sqft ·
Built 1920
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 247 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$770/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$207
Tax + insurance
−$66
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$162
Net cashflow
$335/mo
Annual
$4,021/yr
Cap rate
16.47%
Cash-on-cash
36.35%
DSCR
2.62
1% rule
1.95%
Cash to close
$11,060
Investor read
This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $40k. Condition is rated poor.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($770 rent vs $40k).
It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $2k of equity ($273 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 61/100 on livability (#94 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
Cobre Consolidated Schools (town): math 13% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #56 of 95 in NM (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 92% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Central Elementary (149 students, 100% FRL); Snell Middle (239 students, 100% FRL); Cobre High (276 students, 100% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP.
Grant County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.