2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
822 sqft ·
Built 1945
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 50 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,321/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$760
Tax + insurance
−$242
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$277
Net cashflow
$42/mo
Annual
$510/yr
Cap rate
6.64%
Cash-on-cash
1.26%
DSCR
1.06
1% rule
0.91%
Cash to close
$40,572
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $42 ($510/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (8.8% below list).
It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $132k (8.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#225 in IL, #4,180 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, health & safety F.
Belleville Twp Hsd 201 (suburban): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #308 of 620 in IL (top 50%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Illini Elem School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #749 of 2,056 statewide, top 40%, 327 students, 0% FRL); Grant Middle School (math 10% / reading 18%, grade F, #529 of 665 statewide, top 80%, 235 students, 0% FRL); Belleville High School-East (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #241 of 693 statewide, top 35%, 2,568 students, 0% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.1% in Fairview Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
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· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29