8133 Count St

Houston, TX 77028

$164,990B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,226 sqft · Built 1940 · MultiFamily · Active · 218 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,361/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$371
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$706
• Net cashflow: $1,419/mo
• Annual: $17,026/yr
• Cap rate: 16.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.85%
• DSCR: 2.64
• 1% rule: 2.04%
• Cash to close: $46,197

Investor read

• This is a 2 × 3-bed/2.5-bath units multifamily listed at $165k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive. Per door: $709/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $165k).
• It's been on market 218 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $9k appreciation (5.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hilliard El (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,048 of 4,322 statewide, top 95%, 546 students, 99% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 98% FRL vs 71% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 14% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-17 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 421 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 38d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (5.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 218 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
• Moderate: exterior siding — The exterior siding shows signs of wear and discoloration.
• Major: flooring — The flooring in the interior appears to be in poor condition.
• Moderate: interior walls — The interior walls appear to be in fair condition, with some discoloration visible.
• Major: landscaping — The landscaping is sparse and in poor condition, with overgrown grass and weeds.
• Major: fencing — The fencing appears to be in poor condition, with some sections missing or broken.