124 Oxley Rd

Dennard, AR 72645

$125,000C

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Active · 438 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,125/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$208
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$236
• Net cashflow: $25/mo
• Annual: $303/yr
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.86%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $25 ($303/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (10.0% below list).
• It's been on market 438 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (9.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#468 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Mountain View School District (rural): math 34% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #107 of 238 in AR (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 24 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Stone County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stone County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 5 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $45k; list at $125k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (9.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 438 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.