818 S Church St

Carmi, IL 62821

$89,000B-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · Built 1945 · SingleFamily · Active · 99 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $962/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax + insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $186/mo
• Annual: $2,238/yr
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.98%
• DSCR: 1.40
• 1% rule: 1.08%
• Cash to close: $24,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $89k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($962 rent vs $89k).
• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $81k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#801 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, employment D.
• Carmi-White County CUSD 5 (town): math 24% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #264 of 620 in IL (top 43%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP.
• White County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $36k (29%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $89k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.