258 Woodhue

Shadybrook, TX 75757

$160,000C

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Built 2017 · Manufactured · Pending · 139 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,892/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$335
• HOA: −$41
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $280/mo
• Annual: $3,355/yr
• Cap rate: 8.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.49%
• DSCR: 1.33
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $44,800

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $280 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,042 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bullard El (math 61% / reading 61%, grade B, #368 of 4,322 statewide, top 9%, 434 students, 36% FRL); Bullard Int (math 66% / reading 50%, grade B, #197 of 1,662 statewide, top 12%, 435 students, 26% FRL); Bullard H S (math 57% / reading 68%, grade B-, #234 of 1,632 statewide, top 14%, 848 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 581 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask is 8105% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.0% in Shadybrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.