611 Hornbeck

Mena, AR 71953

$86,000B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,015 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 344 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $988/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$451
• Tax + insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$207
• Net cashflow: $253/mo
• Annual: $3,037/yr
• Cap rate: 9.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.61%
• DSCR: 1.56
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $24,080

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $86k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $253 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($988 rent vs $86k).
• It's been on market 344 days — a 12% lower offer ($76k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $76k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $595 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#142 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• Mena School District (rural): math 42% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #70 of 238 in AR (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mena High School (math 25% / reading 39%, grade F, #119 of 292 statewide, top 43%, 498 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 53% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $39k (31%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-1.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.1% in Mena — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 344 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.