357 Mathilda Dr

Goleta, CA 93117

$3,150,000C-

100 bd · 100.0 ba · 4,864 sqft · Built 1974 · MultiFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $28,124/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$16,519
• Tax + insurance: −$2,000
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$5,906
• Net cashflow: $3,699/mo
• Annual: $44,389/yr
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.03%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $882,000

Investor read

• This is a 10 × 1-bed/1.0-bath units multifamily listed at $3.15M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $4k ($44k/yr) — positive. Per door: $370/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.81M (10.7% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($3.10M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.81M (10.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $22k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $94k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#40 in CA, #1,510 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Goleta Union Elementary (suburban): math 59% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #195 of 1,400 in CA (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Brandon Elementary (444 students, 36% FRL); Goleta Valley Junior High (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #277 of 498 statewide, top 73%, 717 students, 49% FRL); Dos Pueblos Senior High (2,034 students, 44% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-38 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Goleta Union Elementary average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 75 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 719 units permitted in Santa Barbara County in 2024 (217 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Barbara County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 2.9% in Goleta — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $28,124/mo this rent would consume 375% of the median local household income ($90k/yr) (locally 4402% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.