3170 Sherwood St

Saginaw, MI 48603

$214,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,090 sqft · Built 1960 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,594/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$211
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $-79/mo
• Annual: $-943/yr
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.57%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $60,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-79 ($-943/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $201k (6.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (25.8% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $159k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#521 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Saginaw Township Community Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #265 of 540 in MI (top 49%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sherwood Elementary School (565 students, 71% FRL); White Pine Middle School (math 24% / reading 47%, grade F, #278 of 493 statewide, top 57%, 940 students, 58% FRL); Heritage High School (math 33% / reading 58%, grade D-, #210 of 713 statewide, top 29%, 1,396 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 36% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.7%/yr); 162 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 7.8% in Saginaw — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.