464 Firelight Dr

Big Sky, MT 59716

$875,000D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,859 sqft · Built 2005 · Condo · Active · 57 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,589
• Tax + insurance: −$702
• HOA: −$897
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,050
• Net cashflow: $-2,238/mo
• Annual: $-26,854/yr
• Cap rate: 3.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.96%
• DSCR: 0.51
• 1% rule: 0.57%
• Cash to close: $245,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $875k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-27k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $480k (45.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $500k (42.9% below list).
• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($849k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $480k (45.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $79k of equity ($6k loan paydown + $73k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#113 in MT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B; Watch: schools C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Big Sky School K-12 (rural): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #17 of 116 in MT (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,706 units permitted in Gallatin County in 2024 (533 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Gallatin County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$127k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.