4117 Bear Vly

Nampa, ID 83687

$99,940C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 702 sqft · Built 2010 · Manufactured · Pending · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,679/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$495
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $244/mo
• Annual: $2,931/yr
• Cap rate: 9.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.47%
• DSCR: 1.47
• 1% rule: 1.68%
• Cash to close: $27,983

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $244 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#47 in ID) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nampa School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #82 of 92 in ID (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Columbia High School (math 16% / reading 52%, grade F, #115 of 169 statewide, top 68%, 1,239 students, 39% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 631 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,620 units permitted in Canyon County in 2024 (196 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Canyon County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 3.2% in Nampa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.