4 Touchstone #150

Lake Oswego, OR 97035

$199,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 984 sqft · Built 1970 · Condo · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,109/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$324
• HOA: −$718
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-419/mo
• Annual: $-5,032/yr
• Cap rate: 3.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.03%
• DSCR: 0.60
• 1% rule: 1.06%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-419 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $125k (37.2% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $125k (37.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#32 in OR, #769 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F.
• Lake Oswego SD 7J (suburban): math 61% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #4 of 58 in OR (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Oak Creek Elementary School (math 72% / reading 77%, grade A, #23 of 412 statewide, top 7%, 445 students, 9% FRL); Lake Oswego Middle School (math 57% / reading 72%, grade A-, #9 of 128 statewide, top 8%, 824 students, 8% FRL); Lake Oswego Senior High School (math 70% / reading 75%, grade B+, #12 of 143 statewide, top 8%, 1,245 students, 8% FRL) — zoned schools at 8% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 259 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 946 units permitted in Clackamas County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Clackamas County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $124k; list at $199k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 3.8% vs local median 1.4% in Lake Oswego — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?