689 Lake Howard Dr NW Unit 1E

Winter Haven, FL 33880

$124,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · Built 1969 · Condo · Active · 419 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,581/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$650
• Tax + insurance: −$232
• HOA: −$401
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $-35/mo
• Annual: $-417/yr
• Cap rate: 5.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.20%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 1.27%
• Cash to close: $34,720

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $124k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-417/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $118k (5.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $124k).
• It's been on market 419 days — a 12% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $109k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $857 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in FL, #4,898 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Inwood Elementary School (math 27% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,969 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 298 students, 70% FRL); Westwood Middle School (math 19% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 571 statewide, top 96%, 878 students, 70% FRL); Lake Region High School (math 14% / reading 22%, grade F, #570 of 667 statewide, top 86%, 1,545 students, 61% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 25% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 345 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 419 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?