815 Welford Ave

Port Arthur, TX 77640

$59,997B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 808 sqft · Built 1962 · SingleFamily · Active · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,200/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax + insurance: −$201
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $432/mo
• Annual: $5,187/yr
• Cap rate: 16.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.63%
• DSCR: 2.59
• 1% rule: 2.00%
• Cash to close: $16,799

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $432 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $56k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,014 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• Port Arthur ISD (urban): math 15% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #796 of 826 in TX (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 343 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 16.3% vs local median 5.0% in Port Arthur — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.