1931 E Meats #56

Orange, CA 92865

$199,000B

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,207 sqft · Built 2012 · Manufactured · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,470/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax + insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$729
• Net cashflow: $1,572/mo
• Annual: $18,863/yr
• Cap rate: 15.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.85%
• DSCR: 2.51
• 1% rule: 1.74%
• Cash to close: $55,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $199k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $196k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#172 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, employment A+, crime B; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Orange Unified (urban): math 39% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #127 of 517 in CA (top 25%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Taft Elementary (447 students, 93% FRL); Cerro Villa Middle (750 students, 59% FRL); Villa Park High (math 34% / reading 58%, grade D-, #409 of 1,170 statewide, top 36%, 2,110 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 38% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,974 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,839 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.8% vs local median 2.3% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($127k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.