3208 Neptune St

Edinburg, TX 78542

$169,000C-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Built 2013 · SingleFamily · Active · 72 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$886
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $142/mo
• Annual: $1,707/yr
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.61%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.98%
• Cash to close: $47,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $169k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $142 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (2.4% below list).
• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#784 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D, amenities F.
• Edinburg CISD (urban): math 20% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #699 of 826 in TX (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1003 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.4% in Edinburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.