53 Welcome St

East Bethlehem, PA 15333

$125,000D+

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,701 sqft · Built 1914 · SingleFamily · Active · 65 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,077/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax + insurance: −$240
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-45/mo
• Annual: $-541/yr
• Cap rate: 5.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.55%
• DSCR: 0.93
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $35,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-541/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $117k (6.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (13.8% below list).
• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $108k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Bethlehem-Center SD (rural): math 18% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #448 of 539 in PA (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1914 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 12 active listings in the ZIP; 489 units permitted in Washington County in 2024 (30 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Washington County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 4 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (3.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1914 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.