3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,560 sqft ·
Built 2005
· Land
· Active
· 87 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$3,500/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,358
Tax + insurance
−$606
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$735
Net cashflow
$801/mo
Annual
$9,610/yr
Cap rate
10.57%
Cash-on-cash
15.28%
DSCR
1.68
1% rule
1.35%
Cash to close
$72,520
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $259k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $801 ($10k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $259k).
It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($243k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $243k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 59/100 on livability (#636 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Siskiyou Union High (rural): math 25% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #763 of 1,400 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $122/mo.
Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 50 units permitted in Siskiyou County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Siskiyou County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
15 sale attempts since 14y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $150k; list at $259k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AO (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-P34CSM53YHNS6H
· Data 1 day agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29