2608 State Route 17

Toluca, IL 61369

$119,900C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,082 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Pending · 26 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $977/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$172
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $-29/mo
• Annual: $-348/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $33,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-29 ($-348/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $98k (18.5% below list).
• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $98k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($829 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#365 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Fieldcrest CUSD 6 (rural): math 18% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #361 of 620 in IL (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 9 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Marshall County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 5 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask is 20% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $120k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.