70060 Falcon Rd

Smithville, OK 74957

$120,000C+

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 1968 · SingleFamily · Pending · 12 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,235/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $252/mo
• Annual: $3,026/yr
• Cap rate: 8.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.00%
• DSCR: 1.40
• 1% rule: 1.03%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $252 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#644 in OK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Smithville (rural): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #282 of 513 in OK (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Smithville Es (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #168 of 845 statewide, top 24%, 137 students, 0% FRL); Smithville Hs (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #150 of 447 statewide, top 48%, 83 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 70% district-wide (70 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 16 units permitted in McCurtain County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McCurtain County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $120k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.