6462 Fm 1144

Karnes City, TX 78118

$150,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,330 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 177 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,120/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax + insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $-27/mo
• Annual: $-326/yr
• Cap rate: 6.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.78%
• DSCR: 0.97
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $42,000

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-27 ($-326/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $112k (25.4% below list).
• It's been on market 177 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $112k (25.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#627 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Karnes City ISD (town): math 24% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #665 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Roger E Sides El (math 17% / reading 21%, grade F, #3,739 of 4,322 statewide, top 87%, 288 students, 70% FRL); Karnes City J H (math 31% / reading 40%, grade F, #827 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 221 students, 62% FRL); Karnes City H S (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 329 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 78 units permitted in Karnes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Karnes County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 95% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 177 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.